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Are we seeing an Iranian revolution?                                                                                    

Posted at: Jun/18/2009 : Posted by: mel

Related Category: Politics & Gov,

Iran’s recent election of a new president has led to almost continual protest and descent within the country. Whether the election was taken by fraud or not is the point of controversy. I find the parallels to Tiananmen Square protests of 1989 in China both worthy of noting, and cause for optimism.

A brief history refresher: In Beijing in the People’s Republic of China (PRC) a series of demonstrations occurred. The protests were sparked by the pro-reform official Hu Yaobang whom protesters wanted to mourn. Despite a lack of unified cause or leadership, nearly 1,000,000 people had gathered on the Tiananmen Square. The protests lacked a single voice or cause and include disillusioned Communist Party members, free market reformers, voices against the government’s authoritarianism, along with people looking for democratic reform. It should be note that while the demonstrations centered at Tiananmen Square, there were other large scale protests in cities throughout China.

The protests lasted for nearly seven weeks before the PRC government used the military and its tanks to clear Tiananmen Square on June 4th. There is no clear picture on the human toll inflicted by the military. Some reports put the deaths at 2,500 and 7-10,000 wounded. Following the military intervention, the PRC government conducted widespread arrests to suppress protesters and their supporters all across China. The foreign press was banned from the country and only strictly controlled government press releases were available. Additionally, and members of the Party who had publicly sympathized with the protesters were purged, with several high-ranking members being placed under house arrest including General Secretary Zhao Ziyang. Despite international condemnation of the PRC government’s violent suppression of the Tiananmen Square protest, nothing seemed to change in China.

So why the history lesson? Despite what appeared to be a totalitarian quashing of the protests, we now know that the June of 1989 was the beginning of 20 years of slow but steady reform in China. China is now much more open to the world, participates in the world economy, manufactures goods for half the globe, and has a pseudo free market economy.

A lot of optimistic parallels could be drawn with the events unfolding in Iran. Foreign news organizations have been banned from covering the protest since the election last Friday, which the government declared that Ahmadinejad won by a landslide. The reform candidate Mousavi and his supporters claim that the election was rigged and that he was the true winner.

The current protesters in Tehran are reported to be in the “many hundreds of thousands”. The protesters are the young, disillusioned, unemployed, and economic reformers all seeking a more moderate Iran. The protesters when interviewed spoke of open trading with the west, less oppressive government, and being more politically moderate in the region. The protests are driven by the notion that their votes have been hijacked. Some chanted “Death to the dictator!” and “Where are our votes!” This is an interesting protest when you consider that Iran’s supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Kamenei is the real seat of power in the country. Any action the President takes is only with the permission of the Supreme Leader. Outside of a desire to be more open and moderate to the rest of the world, there appears to be very little difference between Mousavi and Ahmadinejad platforms.

I am actually not very optimistic for short term change in Iran, but I do find plenty to still look forward to. Much like China who in June of 1989 showed us a generation seeking change, I think we are seeing a similar history unfolding. The protests in Iran are dominated by people under 30 years old. These same people will be slowly transitioning into positions of power and able to implement change over the next 10-20 years. Despite what may unfold over the next few days and weeks, we are seeing and hearing from Iran’s next generation of leaders and what I hear is good.

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